The Divide
The divide between Republicans and Democrats has been growing for decades. Some analysts have predicted for many years that armed conflict is inevitable. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has made the divide irreparable for some, and that spells trouble. As he continues to spread conspiracy theories and blatant lies about anything he thinks will benefit him, he has created a following of some very dangerous people. In so doing, Trump is ensuring armed conflict in America. Those people, including QAnon and other factions, are poised to react to the upcoming election in whatever manner Trump signals.
The fact is that Trump has been pushing toward armed conflict in America ever since the 2016 election. Do you remember Trump’s posturing leading up to the 2016 election? “The election is rigged”, he kept saying. That is, until he won it. But, what if he had lost the election? We all know now that he would have falsely claimed that the election was rigged and pushed his followers to take action. You see, his followers have been drilled by right-wing media sources that have basically brainwashed them.
That was four years ago, and extremist, far-right groups had already been organizing and forming militias. At that time, we had already witnessed open acts of defiance by militia groups, including the armed occupation of Federal lands. Since that time, these groups have grown in number, size, and radical ideology. They have also become empowered by Trump’s consistent signalling of racial divide and Confederate revival. These groups believe that our government has been taken over by a “deep state”, and they are the soldiers in an imaginary fight to save America. It would almost be funny, if they didn’t really believe it.
The Election
Fast forward to today. If there is a legitimate election, Trump will lose. It was unbelievable that he won the controversial 2016 election, and he has done nothing since then but golf and destroy the country. Before the pandemic and concurrent economic collapse, Trump had already undermined most of our major institutions, including the FBI, CIA, State Department, EPA, etc. In addition, he had laid waste to the rule of law by deciding he was above it, and appointing his puppet A.G., William Barr to run the Justice Department. The idea that Trump has any chance in the upcoming election is absurd, and he knows it. That is why he is doing everything he can to undermine the election in advance. The fact that he just took steps to sabotage the USPS should tell you that there is no limit to the depths he will sink to.
So, let’s play out the most likely scenario. Trump loses the election, and declares that there was widespread fraud. He would then be able to file lawsuits in each state, and hold up the results. However, the backstop is mid December. The Constitution “gives Congress the authority to specify the day when each state’s electors, those chosen in November, must meet and cast their electoral votes.” Congress has made that day, “the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December.” Fortunately, that will be as long as he can hold up the election results. Unfortunately, he will likely not accept the results, and that’s when the real trouble begins.
The Aftermath
By refusing to leave, Trump will be ensuring armed conflict. If such a conflict takes place, you can count on some of those far-right militia groups joining the fight. Worse yet, Trump can fortify himself and may be difficult to extract quickly. In a matter of days, we could easily have a civil war on our hands. If our military and law enforcement members fracture along political lines, we will be plunged into complete chaos and civil war. Trump is delusional, so there is no telling what he might do to hold power. He also knows that he will face criminal indictments and lawsuits as soon as he leaves office. He signaled his understanding of that fact when he changed his official state of residence to Florida. Trump is a desperate man at the end of his rope, and that is a dangerous man.
Now, let’s play out another scenario. Let’s say that we navigate the obstacle course that Trump is setting up, and he loses the election. Of course, he will contest it in the manner discussed. Regardless, the backstop provided by the Constitution will conclude the election results in mid December. This time, however, let’s say his bone spurs get the better of his courage, and he decides he would rather live, and transfer power peacefully. Do you think that will be the end? Not a chance. He has over 31 million Twitter followers, and he will continue to push conspiracy theories and lies. As he continues to throw gas on the fire, it will only be a matter of time before we see armed uprisings, and acts of domestic terror. The FBI already has QAnon on their domestic terrorist watch list, and there are dozens of others.
The Consequence
The last scenario we did not consider is Trump being declared the winner of the election. Because of his presidency, his complete lack of credibility, and his constant signalling that he is undermining the elections, reasonable people will not believe the results. This will lead to armed insurrection as well, just from the other side. There is no way that Democrats, Independents, and even some flipped Republicans will stand for another 4 years of Trump. He is inarguably the worst president the country has ever had. The people that support him to this day are a small minority of the country.
It is difficult to imagine an upcoming election with a smooth outcome. With his posturing, Trump is ensuring armed conflict in America, one way or another. When people embrace extremist ideologies that are based on conspiracy theories, it is difficult to reach them with reason. Fold in some enabling religious fervor, and you have a person that is nothing short of delusional. When these people become radicalized and militarized, they will often follow their delusions to the death. The pandemic will likely keep people in check until the election, but that’s when things are going to get ugly. Regardless, it seems obvious at this point that there will be blood.
-Rondym Kiefe