Why Republicans Need Trump Convicted More Than Democrats Do
As we head into Trump’s second impeachment trial, it is clear that Republicans need Trump convicted more than the Democrats do. After 4 years of Trump, there is great division among those who identify as “Republicans”. Because of Trump and his influence, the very definition of “Republican” is now murkier than ever. As such, the Republican party will have to choose a way forward. Well, that will be difficult as long as Trump remains part of the equation, because there is no half way at this point. In short, Republican lawmakers will have to choose between the traditional norms and Republican principles, and the lawless, reckless, “win at all costs” tactics of Donald Trump.
In order to clearly understand the Republican calculations, let’s leave facts, truth, and principles out of it. GOP senators have made it clear that they are only motivated by partisan political loyalty and their own political interests. For the majority of GOP senators, votes are decided entirely by practical political calculation. In other words, the only way they will vote to convict is if it is politically advantageous for them to do so. For many senators, the facts of the case will have no bearing on which way they ultimately vote.
So, the first question becomes, what are the chances that Trump will ever actually run for public office again? In my opinion, there is absolutely no chance. His life is about to be overwhelmed by criminal indictments and civil lawsuits. In addition, we have only begun to discover the depth of Donald’s dastardly deeds. There will be much more to come, including new revelations about Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election. The new Justice Department is simply putting all the pieces together.
Will Trump Be Convicted?
It is important to note that Trump’s support is at an all time low, as he leaves Washington in complete disgrace. He has alienated many top ranking officials in his party, and finds himself increasingly isolated. Even some of his conspiracy theory followers have become disenchanted. If enough Republican senators vote to convict Trump, they can preclude him from holding public office in the future. That will effectively reduce him to the sideline heckler he is comfortable being. Thereafter, Republicans would need to silence Trump in order to prevent him from attacking Republicans that stood up to him. In this case, the judicial system will likely do their work for them.
In all of US history, there has never been a more impeachable offense than the January 6th insurrection. What Trump did is contrary to the Constitution and every democratic principle that the US stands for. In addition, we now have a laundry list of Trump’s documented attempts to illegally overturn the results of the election. Not only would our laws dictate that he be convicted, they would also make him guilty of the most serious of crimes. Even some of his most loyal supporters saw the incident as “a bridge too far” and quickly condemned his actions. Look, if this was a court of law and not a political body, he would likely be convicted by unanimous vote. Along those same lines, he should have been removed for the Ukraine incident, but the GOP controlled senate refused to even hold a trial.
Mitch McConnell Will Decide Trump’s Fate
Now let’s talk about enough votes to convict Trump. There is a growing number of GOP senators that have already stated conclusively that they will vote to convict Trump. The facts at hand and the principles at stake are just too much for some to stomach. I mean, we are talking about senators that were the actual targets of the attack. Those GOP senators have openly stated that “enough is enough”, and are willing to take a stand and accept any political consequences. When the Democrats put on their impeachment show with the entire nation watching, senators will be under immense pressure to convict.
Now let’s talk about the real power brokering in the senate. Mitch McConnell still wields a tremendous amount of power, even though the election demoted him to Minority Leader. If he decides to push an impeachment, there is a strong possibility that enough Republicans will fall in line and vote to convict. Look, Mitch McConnell only ever tolerated the president, and now he just plain hates him. As far as McConnell is concerned, Trump cost him his senate Majority Leader seat, and has wrecked the Republican party. If McConnell chooses to support a conviction, Trump will be convicted. Despite his harsh rhetoric, McConnell has stopped short of saying he will vote to convict. Of course, this is not because he has not yet made up his mind. Rather, he is just playing his hand and keeping all of his options open.
Democrats Will Benefit Regardless of Outcome
No matter what happens in the trial, the Democrats win. If Republicans convict Trump, many of his supporters will be taken down with him politically. If the party leadership moves away from Trump, those who continue to support Trump will only deepen the divide in the party. Regardless, there will be division within the party. Senators will have to choose between following the party of Trump, or returning to a more traditional Republican platform. Obviously, the wise move is to distance from Trump, and the impeachment provides GOP leaders with a perfect opportunity. There is no future in a lawless, anti-democratic demagogue, and the seasoned GOP leadership knows it. If they break away, they will subject themselves to personal attacks by Trump. Because of this, the GOP not only needs Trump convicted, they need him by silenced permanently. Again, this is something that could easily happen through the judicial system.
If the Republicans do not vote to convict, it will be a further stain on their party. History will judge harshly all those that stood by and watched as Trump laid waste to our Constitution. Some Republicans have already turned away from Trump and have chosen principle over party, at the risk of losing supporters. After the trial, every senator will have to make a very public vote. In my opinion, the senators that choose country before party will be rewarded in the long run. Believe me, when the next election comes, Republicans will be voting for whichever candidate has an “R” next to their name. That’s exactly what happened with Trump. In short, for the good of the country and the credibility of their party, Republicans need Trump convicted and silenced.
-Rondym Kiefe